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Provincial Election Analysis

Why such a tight race?

Unofficial Results before Recount Mississauga-Erin Mills.jpg
Official Tabulation Before Recount Mississauga-Erin Mills.jpg

The Results Are NOT Final Until After a Judicial Recount

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The count of ballots in the Ontario election is still pending. We do not yet have a final 2025 result in Mississauga-Erin Mills.

A published Official Tabulation is available (see links below) but the result is not final because the judicial recount is not completed. The image above is an excerpt from the Official Tabulation (pre-judicial-recount) for Mississauga-Erin Mills. Please note the number of ballots "Rejected as to Marking". An "official tabulation" is not really official until after the recount by the judge. A judge, for example, may in applying the law, look at ballots differently than the scanning machine or the original scrutineers.

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Is there a political science student in the FB Group who can help us analyze this data? Expand Comments below for Poll data and maps for EMSRA neighbourhoods, specifically Polls 19, 22, 23, and 24 and Advance Polls.

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What is the History of Declined Ballots in Past Elections?

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For comparison purposes, you can find Rejected Ballots, Unmarked Ballots, Declined Ballots, and Valid Ballots from the 2018 and 2022 elections. Every vote or non-vote counts, especially in Mississauga - Erin Mills. Source https://results.elections.on.ca/en/data-explorer...

Results in 2018 and 2022.jpg

Where can I get the Vote Totals for Each Poll in Mississauga-Erindale?

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Official Tabulation (pre-judicial-recount) Data can be found in: Vote Totals From Official Tabulation - Mississauga—Erin Mills 062.xlsx and Vote Totals From Official Tabulation - Mississauga—Erin Mills 062.pdf at https://www.elections.on.ca/.../elections-results.html... We need to analyze this data carefully for use by the 4099 FB Group and EMSRA in the upcoming federal and municipal elections.

Where can I get a Map of the Boundaries of Each Poll in Mississauga-Erin Mills?

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To analyze this data by poll, you need a detailed map of the boundaries for each poll. That is difficult to find following an election. If you have one, be sure to keep it for future elections: federal, municipal, and provincial. Try this link: Polling Division Wall Map for Mississauga—Erin Mills 062 at https://www.elections.on.ca/.../current-electoral... You will need to download and open a zip file.

Where Can I Get a Copy of the Large Wall Map of the Riding Showing the Riding Boundaries?

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Large Electoral boundaries maps can be found at https://voterinformationservice.elections.on.ca/.../62... but they are not detailed for results by poll analysis.

What Were the Results of the Advance Polls Held at South Common Mall, Unit 19?

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The image below relates to Advance Polls (pre-judicial-recount) conducted at South Common Mall Unit 19. Source Official Tabulation pre-judicial-recount. BAYER, MICHAEL 81+2=83, DAR, QASIR 2168+218=2386, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 129+8=137, HUSSAIN, SAJID 11+1=12, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 35+2=37, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 208+15=223, and SABAWY, SHEREF 2087+151=2238. Please double-check my data for errors. See data and images for election-day polls 19, 22, 23, and 24 in our EMSRA neighbourhoods, in Comments.

Advance Polls at South Common in Februar

What Were the Results in Poll 19 - Sawmill Valley West Portion?

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Below is an image of the Poll 023 (pre-judicial-recount) from the February 27, 2025 election. The Poll includes the west portion of Sawmill Valley. Pre-judicial-recount (and not including advance polls) the results were BAYER, MICHAEL 17, DAR, QASIR 426, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 23, HUSSAIN, SAJID 4, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 12, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 30, and SABAWY, SHEREF 345. Please double-check my data for errors.

Poll 023- west half of Sawmill Valley neighbourhood.jpg

What Were the results in Poll 024 - Sawmill Valley East Portion and Promontory Bridlepath?

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Below is an image of the Poll 024 (pre-judicial-recount) from the February 27, 2025 election. The Poll includes the east portion of Sawmill Valley and Promontory/Bridlepath as wel as other areas outside EMSRA neighbourhoods. Pre-judicial-recount (and not including advance polls) the results were BAYER, MICHAEL 19, DAR, QASIR 288, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 20, HUSSAIN, SAJID 1, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 2, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 34, and SABAWY, SHEREF 372. Please double-check my data for errors.

Poll 024 includes Sawmill Valley east portion and Promontory Bridlepath.jpg

What were the results in Poll 022 Arbour Green Neighbourhood and south?

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Below is an image of the Poll 022 (pre-judicial-recount) from the February 27, 2025 election. The Poll includes the full Arbour Green neighbourhood (not just the townhouses) and South Common but not Sunrise LTC and some apartment buildings. Pre-judicial-recount (and not including advance polls) the results were BAYER, MICHAEL 33, DAR, QASIR 497, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 42, HUSSAIN, SAJID 3, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 17, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 102, and SABAWY, SHEREF 492. Please double-check my data for errors.

Poll 022 Arbour Green and South Common but excluding Sunrise and apartment buildings.jpg

What Were the results in polls 705 - Sunrise LTC and 403 - Eagle Ridge?

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Polls 705 (Sunrise LTC) and 403 (Eagle Ridge) are enclaves within poll 022. In Poll 705 Pre-judicial-recount (and not including advance polls) the results were BAYER, MICHAEL 0, DAR, QASIR 11, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 0, HUSSAIN, SAJID 0, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 1, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 3, and SABAWY, SHEREF 9. Please double-check my data for errors. In Poll 403 Pre-judicial-recount (and not including advance polls) the results were BAYER, MICHAEL 10, DAR, QASIR 121, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 6, HUSSAIN, SAJID 2, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 3, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 10, and SABAWY, SHEREF 115. Please double-check my data for errors.

Polls 705 and 403.jpg

What Were the results in poll 019 - Pheasant Run and Woodhurst?

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Below is an image of the Poll 019 (pre-judicial-recount) from the February 27, 2025 election. The Poll includes the Pheasant Run and Woodhurst neighbourhoods. Pre-judicial-recount (and not including advance polls) the results were BAYER, MICHAEL 51, DAR, QASIR 737, FRANKLIN, ADRIANE 76, HUSSAIN, SAJID 3, MATULEWICZ, MICHAEL 23, RIZVI, MUBASHIR 88, and SABAWY, SHEREF 731. Please double-check my data for errors.

Poll 019 Pheasant Run and Woodhurst.jpg

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