Long Term Cost of Removing Carbon Pricing v. Keeping Carbon Pricing
"Axe the Tax" v. "Axe the Carbon",
Effect in MT of CO2e,
Comparing:
Scenario Without Carbon Pricing
v.
Scenario With Carbon Pricing
The data on this page was released by Environment and Climate Change Canada in June 2024, please see:
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CBC June 13, 2024 article: "Following Conservative attacks, government releases internal data on the impact of carbon pricing"
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"The modelling, created by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) in May and released today, projects carbon pricing's impacts on emissions and the gross domestic product (GDP)."
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"The department's modellers took the rising price on carbon and imposed it on Statistics Canada's GDP figures. According to the data, Canada's emissions would be nearly 11 per cent higher by 2030 without carbon pricing."
"The modelling says that amounts to nearly 80 million tonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gas emissions eliminated by carbon pricing."
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"The data also shows that carbon pricing is expected to reduce national GDP."
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"According to ECCC's figures, Canada's GDP would be about $2.68 trillion in 2030 without carbon pricing. With carbon pricing, it's expected to hit $2.66 trillion in 2030."
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Canada, all regions, all sectors
Mega Tonnes (MT)
of CO2e
Increase if Carbon Pricing Eliminated
Source:
GHG Pivot Table in ENVI_Request_NOCP_FALL2023ANALYSIS May 02.xlsx
Environment and Climate Change Canada carbon pollution pricing data
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Note from the above spreadsheet:
"Modelling
The modeling of the reference scenario with carbon pricing included the fuel levy and the OBPS following the current price trajectory of $170 per MT by 2030. The counterfactual scenario differs as it sets the price of the fuel levy and the OBPS to zero. As mentioned in previous communications, the reference case used for these scenarios included the CFR Because these policies were included in the baseline they were not explicitly modeled in the scenarios, though they were implicitly accounted for. The Department has re-done this analysis explicitly modelling these policies as it was provided with a reference case excluding CFR and ITCs."
Year | Scenario without Carbon Pricing | Scenario with Carbon Pricing | Effect of removing Carbon Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 723.1 | 698.5 | 24.6 |
2024 | 721.3 | 689.1 | 32.1 |
2025 | 726 | 683.4 | 42.6 |
2026 | 728.8 | 679.4 | 49.3 |
2027 | 725.4 | 669.3 | 56.1 |
2028 | 719.6 | 657.5 | 62.1 |
2029 | 720.2 | 650.6 | 69.6 |
2030 | 719.7 | 641.3 | 78.4 |
Effect of Removing Carbon Pricing Per Person in 2024
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Canada's population as of June 20, 2024 is 41,330,456. The estimated 2024 CO2e emissions per person in Canada is therefore either 721.3 MT or 721.3 million tonnes / 41,330,456 = 17.4 tonnes per person (without carbon pricing) or 689.1 MT or 689.1 million tonnes/41,330,456 =16.6 tonnes per person (with carbon pricing). The difference is 32.1 MT or 32.1 million tonnes / 41,330,456 = .8 tonnes or 800 kg per person.
Effect of Removing Carbon Pricing Per Family of 4 in 2024
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A family of 4 could eliminate their share of 4 x .8 tonnes p.p. = 3.2 tonnes of CO2e by installing a cold climate heat pump and dramatically reducing their natural gas emissions at a rate of 1.932 kg CO2e per cubic metre of natural gas consumed. 3200 kg of COe is generated by about 1657 cu. m. of natural gas. An average home in Canada uses "1,900 to 3,100 cubic metres per year, depending on the climate in the region". (see footnote 1). Installation of the heat pump may save far more in natural gas CO2e than 3200 kg. The family may use some natural gas for hot water.
If carbon pricing is removed, the same family of 4 saves $0 in fuel charge by installing the heat pump. If carbon pricing remains they save at least 1657 cu. m of natural gas and therefore at least $252.52 in fuel charge. If their natural gas furnace previously used more than 1652 cu. m. of natural gas per year they reduce even more in CO2e emissions and save even more in fuel charge by installing an all-electric cold climate heat pump. With carbon tax removed the incentive to reduce CO2e is gone, and with carbon tax continuing, they receive an incentive of saved fuel charge of at least $252.52 in 2024, that they will use to help pay for the heat pump.
Their Canada Carbon Rebate (urban) for the year 2024 of 4 x $280 = $1120 can be applied to match remaining fuel charges for other natural gas, gasoline, propane and diesel. If carbon pricing remains, they receive a larger saving i.e. a significantly reduced fuel charge/carbon tax each year and a rebate that increases every year, to help pay for the heat pump.
Effect of Removing Carbon Pricing Per Family of 4 in Future Years
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The fuel charge saving and the rebate for all future years comes to an end, if the fuel charge/carbon tax ends.
Every family should take the time to crunch their own numbers and decide if they are or are not paying more fuel charges than rebate. Is the family making a profit now or into the future by being frugal with its use of fossil fuels?
2030, Ontario, by sectors
Mega Tonnes (MT)
of CO2e
Increase if Carbon Pricing Eliminated
Source:
GHG Pivot Table in ENVI_Request_NOCP_FALL2023ANALYSIS May 02.xlsx
Environment and Climate Change Canada carbon pollution pricing data
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Note from the above spreadsheet:
"Modelling
The modeling of the reference scenario with carbon pricing included the fuel levy and the OBPS following the current price trajectory of $170 per MT by 2030. The counterfactual scenario differs as it sets the price of the fuel levy and the OBPS to zero. As mentioned in previous communications, the reference case used for these scenarios included the CFR Because these policies were included in the baseline they were not explicitly modeled in the scenarios, though they were implicitly accounted for. The Department has re-done this analysis explicitly modelling these policies as it was provided with a reference case excluding CFR and ITCs."
Sector | Scenario without Carbon Pricing | Scenario with Carbon Pricing | Effect of removing Carbon Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
Agriculture | 12.9 | 12.3 | 0.6 |
Buildings | 39.9 | 37.4 | 2.5 |
Electricity and Steam | 11 | 10.9 | 0.1 |
Heavy Industry | 31.8 | 25.2 | 6.6 |
Oil and Gas | 7.5 | 6.2 | 1.4 |
Transportation | 53.9 | 51.7 | 2.1 |
Waste and Others | 9.6 | 7.9 | 1.7 |
All Sectors | 166.7 | 151.7 | 15 |
Footnote 1:
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"In 2021 the average residential natural gas customer used 2,385 cubic metres1 of natural gas. Annual residential gas use varies across Canada from 1,900 to 3,100 cubic metres per year, depending on the climate in the region." Canadian Gas Association, Natural Gas Facts
Note different countries use :
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1 ton or tonne (metric) = 1,000 kilogram
1 megagram = 1,000 kilogram
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1 gigagram GG = 1,000,000 kilogram = 1 million kg
1 gigagram GG = 1,000 tonne
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1 MT mega tonne = 1,000,000,000 kilogram = 1 billion kg
1 MT mega tonne = 1,000,000 tonnes = 1 milllion tonnes
1 MT mega tonne = 1,000 gigagram GG
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Other Resources:
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Wikipedia:
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